000 AGXX40 KNHC 120714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL LOSE IDENTITY BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF TEXAS. EXPECT MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY THU. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 81W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL N ATLC...A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY BELOW 8 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED E OF AREA ALONG 42W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY LATE THU...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 27N/28N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH OF 1022 MB IS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 28N65W. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH FRI. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM... LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 27N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE N APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY WED EVENING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.