000 AGXX40 KNHC 111639 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1239 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THESE CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF...EXCEPT INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING N-S ALONG 85W WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ORIENTATED N-S ALONG 74W...WILL PASS QUICKLY THROUGH W CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF NEAR GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-13 FT IN...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEAR-GALE FORCE AREAS. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX LATE THIS WEEK WITH FRESH-LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ONLY WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE NW COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUE EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PORT CANAVERAL FL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W ALONG THE RIDGE TO NEAR 28N71W ON TUE...EFFECTIVELY RE- ORIENTATING THE RIDGE BOTH E AND W FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 27N AND 30N. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP SE INTO THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS THEN SHIFTING W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W ON THU INTO FRI...WHILE WEAKENING THE E SEGMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. STRONG E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL S OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE NE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE STRONG NE WINDS WILL SPREAD SW INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND SUNSET ON TUE AND WED EVENINGS. OTHERWISE... GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE RIDGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.