000 AGXX40 KNHC 110707 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 307 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL LOSE IDENTITY BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF TEXAS. EXPECT MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...EXCEPT INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH MON. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WITH THE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY THU. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES BUILDING SEAS OF 12-14 FT WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...PARTICULARLY BY EARLY TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 81W/82W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 69W WILL MOVE W ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY... AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE. THE WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL N ATLC...A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE ATLC REGION WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT S OF 15N. THEREAFTER...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 27N/28N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH OF 1021 MB WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE WATERS TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH FRI. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 27N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE N APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY TUE EVENING AND AGAIN BY WED EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.