000 AGXX40 KNHC 101637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1237 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS... ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE TX COAST. EXPECT MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...EXCEPT INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH MON. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING N-S ALONG 76W WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARDS...AND IS CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. THIS LOWER LEVEL WAVE SEEMS TO BE PHASE WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FAVORABLE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ALSO SHIFTING W WITH TIME...SO EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY AND THIS WILL BE DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF NEAR GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-14 FT IN...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEAR-GALE FORCE AREAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON...TUE AND WED EVENINGS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N55W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PORT CANAVERAL FL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT W TO NEAR 29N71W ON MON...EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE BOTH E AND W FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 27N AND 30N. LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED TILL WED WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP SE INTO THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS THEN SHIFTING W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W ON THU...WHILE WEAKENING THE E SEGMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. STRONG E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL S OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE NE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE STRONG NE WINDS WILL SPREAD SW INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND SUNSET ON TUE AND WED EVENINGS. OTHERWISE... GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE RIDGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.