000 AGXX40 KNHC 100712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 312 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF WHERE A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF EACH EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING EACH MORNING. MAINLY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED N-E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 19N-21.5N AND JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 92W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF VENEZUELA. EXPECT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 32-33 KT ALMOST EVERY NIGHT... PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 06Z-15Z. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES BUILDING SEAS OF 12-14 FT WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON...AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT S OF 15N TODAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 27N/28N WILL DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE HIGH OF 1021 MB WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 28N70W BY MON NIGHT. THEN...THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH THU. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 27N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE N APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY SPREAD INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND SUNSET. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.