000 AGXX40 KNHC 090709 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF WHERE A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF EACH EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING EACH MORNING. MAINLY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF VENEZUELA. EXPECT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 32-33 KT ALMOST EVERY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 06Z-15Z. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES BUILDING SEAS OF 12-14 FT WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN...REACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT ACROSS FORECAST ZONE AMZ037 SUN INTO EARLY MON. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 50W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N ON MON NIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH OF 1021 MB DEVELOPING NEAR 28N66W. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH WED...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E AND W ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NW WATERS TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 27N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY SPREAD INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND SUNSET. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.