000 AGXX40 KNHC 081654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1254 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS... ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 23N94W BY LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 91W...WILL PASS W THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS TODAY WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO NE TX. EXPECT MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...EXCEPT INCREASING BRIEFLY TO A FRESH BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING N-S ALONG 65W WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MON AND TUE. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS...EXTENDING E ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN LEEWARDS AND MOST OF THE WINDWARDS. THUS...WILL FORECAST SCT RW/ISOL TS BEHIND WAVE IN WEATHER GRIDS. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THIS WAVE AND CONVECTION TO MOVE W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF NEAR GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-15 FT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEAR-GALE FORCE AREAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 26N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N ON MON NIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 29N75W LATE TUE...WITH THE RIDGE THEN EXTENDING E AND W ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY THE SLIGHTEST SW-WSW 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. A SECOND TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON SAT NIGHT...BUT PRECEDED BY A BRIEF STRONG SW FLOW NEAR 31N79W. OTHERWISE... FRESH-MODERATE SW FLOW EXPECTED N OF 29N W OF 65W THROUGH MON NIGHT. STRONG E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL S OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE N APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY SPREAD SW INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE RIDGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.