000 AGXX40 KNHC 071745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WINDS AND SEAS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF EACH EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY AND FRI BUT DIMINISH SOME SAT AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH FRI. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AND DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF VENEZUELA. EXPECT NEAR GALE PEAK WINDS 32-33 KT ALMOST EVERY NIGHT DURING DIURNAL MAX PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z-15Z. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALES IN THIS AREA AT DAY 5 MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING...BUT THIS IS THE TAIL END OF FCST PERIOD AND PRUDENCE REQUIRES WAITING A DAY OR SO BEFORE PUTTING A GALE WARNING INTO THE GRID FORECAST TO SEE IF THE TIMING AND INTENSITY REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE GFS AND IF OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AGREE. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY ALONG 27N...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WINDS AND SEAS. FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL SEAS REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.