000 AGXX40 KNHC 050750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS. LOCAL NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS OR WEAKER FOR MOST OF THE GULF. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 03Z SHOWED WINDS OF UP TO NEAR GALE IN THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...THESE WERE TRANSIENT CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM-PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF EACH EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING EACH MORNING. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH UP TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF LATER TODAY. THIS WAVE IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH IT MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER YUCATAN AND SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS. LOCAL NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY MORNING DUE TO THE DIURNAL PULSING OF THE COLOMBIA LOW. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE HIGHEST JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH LARGEST SEAS OF 12 FT NORTH OF COLOMBIA IN LATE NIGHT TO MORNING HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THU. THIS WAVE IS HAVING MINIMAL EFFECTS ON THE WINDS AND SEAS. HOWEVER...IT IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AS SEEN IN THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE PUERTO RICO RADAR. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND SWELL OUT OF THE EAST. THESE SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS. LOCAL NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. FRESH WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE TO STRONG EACH LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SAT OVER THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.