000
AGXX40 KNHC 041731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO THE TEXAS COAST WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT. THIS STABLE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
GULF WITH SEAS UNDER 4 FT. EXPECT MODERATE PULSING WINDS TO 25
KT EACH NIGHT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THERMAL TROUGH.
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SW GULF TONIGHT AND TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. A
WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 56W WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY TUE THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS TRACKING ALONG AND
JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS AS IT MOVES INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
NE CARIB. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN
90-120 NM OF COLOMBIA...AND A VERY SMALL AREA OF 30-33 KT WINDS
WITHIN 30-45 NM OF THE COAST...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11-13 FT
TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THIS
AREA IS ONLY 10-15 PERCENT...TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SAT...RESULTING IN A STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER
THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. A SMALL AREA OF
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT N OF HISPANIOLA WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT EACH NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.