000
AGXX40 KNHC 031730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE TEXAS COAST WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI. THIS STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH SEAS
UNDER 4 FT. CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL PULSING WINDS TO 20-25 KT EACH
NIGHT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE THERMAL TROUGH. THE
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SW GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
INTERRUPTIONS IN THIS STABLE PATTERN FROM TROPICAL WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION AS WE APPROACH PEAK PERIOD OF AFRICAN TROPICAL
WAVES. A WAVE ALONG 77W IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL REACH CENTRAL
AMERICA MON. A STRONG WAVE IN THE SW ATLC ALONG 47W WILL CROSS 55W
MON MORNING...REACH THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE THEN WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. A LOW IS
APPARENT ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS TRACKING ALONG THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW AS
THE LOW MOVES W INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TC DEVELOPMENT.

EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM
OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-14 FT TONIGHT INTO MON. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 06-15Z.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN A STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER
THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. A SMALL AREA OF
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT N OF HISPANIOLA WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT EACH NIGHT THIS WEEK. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. 

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.