000 AGXX40 KNHC 030628 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE TEXAS COAST WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PULSING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH EACH EVENING AND NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AND...AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN TEXAS...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF SUN THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND MON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND WAVE PASSAGE...AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS ENHANCEMENT OF THE TRADES. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 12 TO 14 FT SUN NIGHT INTO THE DAY MON. THE PERIOD OF GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM AROUND 0600 UTC TO 1500 UTC MON. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT SEAS ENHANCED BY TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WILL BE REINFORCED AND EXPAND AS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST WATERS SUN NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE- FORCE WINDS MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 8 TO 11 FT. THE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH PRES AND THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH SQUALLY WEATHER AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY PERSISTENT BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHERE WINDS MAY INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE S OF 27N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. SOUTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA COAST... EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AND AGAIN ON WED...POSSIBILITY REACHING THE NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA...AS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.