000 AGXX40 KNHC 021816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NE GULF GENERATING SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...PUSHING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH EACH EVENING AND NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 68W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SUN...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND MON. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY BLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. AT THAT TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO REVEAL A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12-14 FT. SO...THE DECISION WAS MADE AND A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THAT AREA WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ANOTHER WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 10-12 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH PRES AND THE WAVE WILL ALSO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS JUST N OF THE WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH LATE TUE. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT S OF 27N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PULSING 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THE COVERAGE AREA OF THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUN...THEN AGAIN ON WED AS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS EXTENDING WESTWARD BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THESE DAYS. BY EARLY WED...THE ATLC HIGH PRES WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.