000 AGXX40 KNHC 020719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 319 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED BY A WEAK HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THIS RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN WITH SEAS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...AND 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PULSING WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN AND MON EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT EACH OF THESE NIGHTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY SUN MORNING. A SECOND WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON. AFTER THIS SECOND WAVE PASSES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PEAK AROUND 30 KT. THE LAST FEW GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON KEEPING WINDS OVER THIS AREA BELOW MINIMAL GALE FOR THE SUN TO SUN NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST. PULSING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD AREA OF SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC. THIS AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON MON...BRINGING WITH IT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SUPPORTS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT S OF 27N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...EXPECT PULSING 20 TO 25 KT EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THIS AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.