000
AGXX40 KNHC 280630
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT S TO THE SE GULF THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE IT WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A SERIES OF
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WHICH WILL MANAGE TO SAG S INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. OTHERWISE THERMAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING EACH EVENING...SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE SW GULF WHERE DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE SW GULF WITH PULSING
WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF EACH THERMAL TROUGH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN THE ATLC TO THE NE OF THE BASIN ALONG
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PULSING
TO 30 KT NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 7-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 31N79W ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. OTHERWISE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGING...EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TO THE S OF 22N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN...
EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.