000 AGXX40 KNHC 251800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WED AND THU. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO TEXAS. THIS OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SHIFTING OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WITH LESS AMPLITUDE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE MODELS IN THE LATEST GRID PACKAGE AND SURFACE PROGS...AND IS THE REASON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO HIGH AND NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF ASIDE FROM THE SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING WILL PROPAGATE TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE MEANDERING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SUPPORT FRESH NE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT HIGH SEAS FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SW N ATLC AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PAIR OF WAVES PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAVE GRADUALLY MERGED AS PER THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS. THE COMBINED WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND SHOULD EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NEXT NOTABLE WAVE JUST EXITED THE COAST OF AFRICA AND LIKELY WILL NOT REACH 55W OVER THE ATLC UNTIL WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS AND WILL ACT TO ERODE THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING MON AND DISSIPATING MON NIGHT. THE SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH FRONTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MODELS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST NIGHT WINDS ENHANCE TO NEAR 25KT UNTIL LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1 TO 2 FEET FROM THE FLORIDA COAST TO THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.