000
AGXX40 KNHC 250725
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1018 MB IS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A WEAK
AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF
FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO LATER TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
THE GULF AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT IN THE SW GULF.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...A PAIR OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NE OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA AND ALSO TO THE NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL
BE THE HIGHEST IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...UP TO 8-11 FT...WITH
MAINLY 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXED N-NE
AND E SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN TO 3-5
FT BY EARLY MON. REINFORCING SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS BACK TO 5-7 FT
TUE THROUGH WED.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY BRIEF EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
INTRODUCTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION OFF OF THE SE GEORGIA COAST SUN...GRADUALLY STALLING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH MON. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST
OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS
INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.