000 AGXX40 KNHC 240615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN APPROACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE CARRIES THIS LOW AND WAVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10-15 KT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY HAVE LIMITED TIME OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. OTHERWISE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG JUST TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...AND 2-4 FT IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 59W AND ANOTHER ALONG 68W... MAINLY EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE BLOWING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 7-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 30 KT TO THE NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXED N-NE AND E SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN TO 3-5 FT BY EARLY MON. REINFORCING SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS BACK TO 5-7 FT BY LATE TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MAY MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO THE NW PORTION OFF OF THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY SUN...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH MON NIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXCEPT LOCALLY TO FRESH TO THE S OF 22N. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 4-6 FT S OF 22N E OF 65W...AND 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.