000 AGXX40 KNHC 231840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED INLAND THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHEE BAY EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THERMAL TROUGH HAS MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WEAKENED. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A 1018- 1019 MB HIGH CENTER ON THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF DURING THE MORNINGS WHILE WEAKENING. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH NE WINDS EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK LOW PRES AREA HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 17N87W AND ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO IT MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE AGAIN MOVING INLAND ON SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BUOY 42057 LOCATED NEAR 18N85W WAS REPORTING E-SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS TO 8 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC. THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11-12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. TROPICAL N ATLC...A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC MAINLY S OF 15N AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 54W. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ON FRI. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE ATLC RIDGE...WITH AXIS ACROSS THE N WATERS...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE N WATERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 24N WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRI...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED CHANGES INTO MON. AT TIMES SEAS MAY BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS PULSING THERE THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.