000 AGXX40 KNHC 230748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST INLAND THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHEE BAY WITH A RIDGE W TO NE TEXAS. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THERMAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE COAST LAST NIGHT...AND IS PRESENTLY OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW THAT YESTERDAY WAS OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NOW HAVING SHIFTED W TO NEAR 21N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE ERN SECTION OF THE SW GULF...AND E FROM THERE TO S OF 23N BETWEEN WRN CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0238Z SHOW MAINLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS IN THE FAR ERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN ANTICYCLONIC FASHION IN THE FAR NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1021 MB HIGH CENTER. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE FAR SE GULF. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS CONFIRMED THESE WAVEHEIGHTS. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A 1018- 1019 MB HIGH CENTER ON THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF DURING THE MORNINGS WHILE WEAKENING. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH NE WINDS EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0214Z ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY FRESH TRADES THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS CONFINED TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FAR WRN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 87W/88W S 21N AT 06Z WITH A MOTION NEAR 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE IS ENHANCING INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE SEA. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE IS NEAR 18N84W. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING N OF ABOUT 15N AND W OF 82W. PRESENTLY...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAKENING ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED N OF 15N W OF 84W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND ACROSS THE WRN PART OF HONDURAS LATER THIS MORNING. THE INDUCED GRADIENT BEHIND THE WAVE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE W OF THE BASIN...THESE TRADES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE TRADES THEN DECREASE A LITTLE FRI AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASE AGAIN IN COVERAGE ON SAT WHILE EXPANDING A LITTLE TO THE W. ON THE SUN...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO A LOOSENING OF THE GRADIENT AS THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED GOING INTO MON AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA ACT TO TIGHTEN TO PRES GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE YET AGAIN. RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF FRI...THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY FRI NIGHT AND A LITTLE MORE TO AROUND 9 FT LATE ON SAT. THESE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT A MAX OF ABOUT 9 FT THROUGH LATE SUN BEFORE BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 10 FT ON MON. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-7 FT...EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 9 FT IN A NE TO E SWELL IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND ALSO S OF 15N W OF 80W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 06Z A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N79W S TO THE COAST OF CUBA. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E TO W ROUGHLY ALONG 29N. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE E-SE WINDS S OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS. A SMALL PATCH OF FRESH E-SE WINDS IS ALONG THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE E-SE WINDS ARE S OF THE RIDGE...AND MODERATE S-SW WINDS ARE N OF THE RIDGE. BUOY...SHIP AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT S 27N W OF 75W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE HIGHER...IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE S OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2-4 FT N OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF 27N W OF 75W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF THE BASIN TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA WILL LINGER INTO FRI. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WATERS. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 24N WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRI...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED CHANGES INTO MON. AT TIMES SEAS MAY BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WITH FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS PULSING THERE THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.