000 AGXX40 KNHC 221801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO NORTH FLORIDA AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NEAR LOUISIANA. A WEAK HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS WESTWARD OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF BASIN...WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...AND OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS NIGHTLY NEAR A DIURNALLY DRIVEN YUCATAN TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN AND PROPAGATES WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ALSO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE GULF BASIN PRIMARILY DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF MID LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE GULF BASIN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THEN HAND EDITED FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGING AND LOW PRESSURES OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOWER PRESSURES OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. THE TRADES WEAKEN SUBTLY OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO FILL BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING A RE-EXPANSION OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL PERIODICALLY EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE FIRST WAVE WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THU WHILE THE SECOND WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N...TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THU NIGHT AND FRI. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL HELP TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 29N IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE CAROLINA COASTS ON SAT WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL THEN FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF 27N...10 TO 15 KT FROM 22N TO 27N...AND GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT S OF 22N. THE EXCEPTION S OF 22N IS AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND MAINLY NORTH OF 30N AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ATLC WATERS EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.