000 AGXX40 KNHC 220800 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NE GULF AT 29N86.5W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO NE TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E GULF FROM APALACHEE BAY S TO NEAR 25N83W. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THERMAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE COAST LAST NIGHT...AND IS PRESENTLY OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 21N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE ERN SECTION OF THE SW GULF. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0238Z SHOW MODERATE E WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS IN THE FAR SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH NE WINDS ARE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEHIND THE THERMAL TROUGH. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE... EXCEPT FOR 3-4 FT IN THE FAR SE GULF EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN. A 1018-1019 MB HIGH CENTER WILL BE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF DURING THE MORNINGS WHILE WEAKENING. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH NE WINDS EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES FROM 0234-0236Z ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY FRESH TRADES THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS CONFINED TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A WRN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO EXIT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TO NEAR 80W TODAY. THE COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS BEGINS TO DECREASE ON THU. THESE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY ON FRI...THEN DECREASE LATER ON FRI AND REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH SUN. SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI...THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY LATE ON FRI. SEAS TO 8 FT IN AN E SWELL OVER THE FAR SRN PART OF THE ZONE AM037 WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 06Z A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 28N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CENTRAL CUBA. A RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 29N. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE E-SE WINDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF FRESH E-SE WINDS ALONG THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. GENTLE E-SE WINDS ARE NW OF THE TROUGH. BUOY...SHIP AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT S 27N W OF 75W...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE STRAITS OF FL. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE HIGHER...IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS FL ON THU. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE FEATURE THAT CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT. FOR THIS FOECAST PERIOD...SEAS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. AT TIMES SEAS MAY BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WITH FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS THERE THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.