000 AGXX40 KNHC 210955 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 555 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO FEATURE LOCATIONS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHAT WAS YESTERDAY TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ARE NOW REMNANTS OVER E-CENTRAL MEXICO AS OF 09Z. OTHERWISE...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST S OF MOBILE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF FROM JUST OF APALACHICOLA TO 26N86W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW NE-E MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS E OF 90W...AND MODERATE E-SE WINDS W OF 90W EXCEPT FOR FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE ERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RESIDUAL SEAS OF 5-7 FT FROM DANIELLE ARE CONFINED TO HE FAR W PORTIONS OF ZONES 017 AND 023. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING TO 4-6 FT...AND TO 3-4 FT TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR ERN AND NW GULF PORTIONS. FOR THIS FORECAST...THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN WATERS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR 28N BY THU AND REMAIN THROUGH SAT. A 1019-1020 MB HIGH CENTER WILL BE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF DURING THE MORNINGS WHILE WEAKENING. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH NE WINDS EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR STRONG NE WINDS ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES FROM 0114Z AND 0256Z ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY FRESH TRADES THROUGHOUT... EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS CONFINED FROM 12N-17.5N BETWEEN 69W-73W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 74W/75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE N OF 15N...AND EXTEND EASTWARD TO NEAR 68W. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 83W BY WED. THE COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS DECREASES ON THU...BUT THEN INCREASES THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS ATLC HIGH PRES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY S...AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA BECOMES BROAD IN COVERAGE. SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS TO 8 FT IN AN E SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE SRN PART OF THE ZONE AM037 BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE WRN PART OF THAT ZONE BY LATE WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE BASIN THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N66W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO JUST E OF THE FL KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR 26N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. ASCAT DATA...BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS SE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ALONG THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. BUOY...SHIP AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT S 27N W OF 75W...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE STRAITS OF FL. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE HIGHER...IN THE 4- 6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT 6-8 FT SEAS N OF 27N BETWEEN 71W-79W AND ALSO S OF 25N E OF 68W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THU NIGHT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM 30N65W SW TO NE FL. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...AND ALSO BE WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE 6-8 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR S OF 25N E OF 68W WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO ONLY SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND STAY AT THAT RANGE INTO WED NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE FURTHER TO 4-5 FT THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.