000 AGXX40 KNHC 201805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS...EXCEPT OVER SW GULF. WW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEAS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IN NEAR TERM IS TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE CURRENTLY NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF VERA CRUZ. MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE NEAR THE CENTER WITH A BROADER AREA OF WINDS OF 25KT TO 33 KT UP TO 180 NM E TO NE OF THE CENTER DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND RIDGING OVER THE UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS HAVE BUILT SEAS TO A MAXIMUM 13 TO 14 FEET WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE STORM CENTER AND 8 FT SEAS EXTENDING OVER 200 NM. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE MEXICO THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW GULF SHRINK TO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND DIMINISHING TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF AND SURROUNDING COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTER BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK. A RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THIS HIGH CENTER AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MID WEEK UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS REGIME WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE YUCATAN TROUGH EACH EVENING...SUPPORTING FRESH NE/SE WINDS ON THE WEST/EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES WEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS...EXCEPT OVER SW GULF. WW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FRONT OVER THE W ATLC TEMPORARILY ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC. MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE CROSSING THE CARIBBEAN. THE LEADING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RACE WEST AND OUT OF THE BASIN BY TUE NIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF E TO SE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT. THIS SURGE WILL SPREAD WEST WITH THE WAVE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO BUILDS WEST IN TANDEM. ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS...EXCEPT OVER SW GULF. WW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS NEAR 30N67W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 26N74W AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S AND ESTABLISH A RIDGE ACROSS N FLORIDA AND ALONG 29N OVER THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTH FLORIDA RIDGE MID WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG 28N...WHILE DOMINATING THIS PORTION OF THE ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF EASTERLIES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA REINFORCES THE STRONG TRADES WELL AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.