000 AGXX40 KNHC 200756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL EXCEPT TAFB NWPS OUTPUT FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORMED IN THE SW GULF ON SAT AFTERNOON...AND AS OF 2 AM EDT WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 95.7W OR ABOUT 125 MI ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT...MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 6 KT WITH PRES OF 1009 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING NEAR 20.2N 96.2W WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FOUR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST JUST S OF TUXPAN THIS EVENING. WAVEHEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION FOR THE UPDATED NDFD GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE NWPS OUTPUT AS VALUES LOOK REASONABLE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 14 TO 15 FT. THE OUTER EXTENT OF THE 8 FT SEA RADII EXTENDS ABOUT 180 TO 240 NM OUTWARD IN THE N AND NE QUADRANTS FROM THE DEPRESSION CENTER BASED ON A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS AND ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42055 AT 22N94W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0320Z REVEALED FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHERWISE...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WNW ACROSS THE MIDDLE FL KEYS WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE ERN U.S. SW TO THE NRN GULF WATERS. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW E-SE WINDS MAINLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE THROUGHOUT WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE W COAST OF FL. SEAS ELSEWHERE AS NOTED IN THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND IN AN ALTIMETER PASS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE S OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO 27N91W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS N OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-88W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT IN THE FAR WRN PART OF ZONE 017 AND THE NW PART OF ZONE 023 LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO 8 FT EARLY ON TUE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING FURTHER TO 5 FT LATE ON TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WNW ACROSS THE MIDDLE FL KEYS WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE ERN U.S. SW TO THE NRN GULF WATERS. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP IN A W TO E FASHION OVER THE NRN WATERS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH A HIGH CENTER FORMING NEAR 28N86W WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS...AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 3-5 FT EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NE WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES FROM 0136Z AND 0316Z ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY FRESH TRADES THROUGHOUT... EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. STRONG ESE FLOW S OF 18N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE FIRST ALONG 70W AND THE SECOND ALONG 65W/66W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED TO THE E OF THE WAVE ALONG 65W/66W. THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA TUE THROUGH THU AT A RATHER FAST PACE. THIS WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRONG STRONG TRADES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO WED AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE NW PORTION THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS ANALYZED FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 30N68W SW TO 25N72W...THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AS OF 06Z. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SE IN ITS WAKE...WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGING IS PRESENT TO ITS E AND SE N OF 21N. ASCAT DATA...BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ALONG THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A POCKET OF STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW AND 72W. BUOY...SHIP AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT S 26N W OF 72W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE HIGHER...IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE EXCEPT 9-12 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W-79W...AND 6-9 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 27N. THE LOW WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR FROM 31N67W TO 26N71W AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG 31N TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SWD TO NEAR 28N WED...AND MAINTAIN POSITION THERE INTO FRI. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE COAST NRN HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-8 FT. THE LARGE SEAS THAT PLAGUED THE WATERS N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...CURRENTLY IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE...WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL FORM OFF THE WEAKENING FRONT ON MON NEAR THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS...AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG 31N MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SWD TO NEAR 28N WED THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.