000 AGXX40 KNHC 191805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS OUTSIDE OF SW GULF. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SW GULF. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED N OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IT REACHES THE MEXICO COAST. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM OF THE NORTH TO NE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSES THE SW GULF. THIS WIND FIELD WOULD GENERATE SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...PROPAGATING AS FAR N AS 25N. ONCE INLAND ON MONDAY...A LINGERING TROUGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WHICH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETUP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF BY MON NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GULF FROM THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI TIME PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SW N ATLC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ENDING THE NIGHTLY OCCURRENCES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT AND A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD...EVENTUALLY MERGING LATE THIS WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STRONGER RIDGING REGIME WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN STARTING MON NIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 20N85W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN E TO W SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE. THE SECOND WAVE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE POISED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 30N69W WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 13 FT OVER OUR AREA IN N TO NE SWELL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL FROM NEAR 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TO MODERATE TO FRESH LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SEAS TO BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN UNITES STATES ON MONDAY...AND CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRAPPED BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG A RIDGE AXIS NEAR 29N TUE AND WED TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS NORTHERN RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AS THIS NORTHERN RIDGE MERGES WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.