000 AGXX40 KNHC 190806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF FORT MYERS NW TO SW LOUISIANA. A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FL NW TO THE NW GULF. BROAD LOW PRES IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 20N93W AS OF 06Z. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0340Z LAST NIGHT SHOW WINDS MAINLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE THROUGHOUT WITH PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION FROM THE E-SE. THE EXCEPTION IS FOUND IN RELATION WITH THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA WHERE THE GRADIENT TO ITS E HAS TIGHTENED WITH STRONG E-SE WINDS NOTED IN THE ERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE PER THE ASCAT PASS. SEAS THERE ARE UP TO THE RANGE OF 8-9 FT. SEAS ELSWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 5-7 FT S OF 24N OUTSIDE THE ERN PART OF THE SW GULF. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT SAGS S WHILE DISSIPATING. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WITH REGARDS TO THE CURRENT OBSERVED AREA OF BROAD OF LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD CONSENSUS IN CARRYING THIS SYSTEM IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY MINIMAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. THE TIGHT GRADEINT TO ITS NE AND E WILL INCREASE IN RADII THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL REACHING THE RANGE OF 20-30 AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 11 OR 12 FT AS THE LOW REACHES NEAR 20N95W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR 21N96W EARLY TONIGHT...AND TO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W BY SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE STRONG RANGE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY WELL INCREASE FURTHER DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOW...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING JUTS INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N98W BY LATE SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF ZONE 017 DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE...ONCE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BNDY OVER THE ERN GULF DISSIPATES...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OVER THE ERN PART OF THE GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE INDUCED GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE E WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE IN THE ERN PORTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SEAS BUILDING THERE TO AROUND 6 FT. THE HIGH PRES THEN BECOMES A W TO E RIDGE OVER THE NRN PORTION TUE THROUGH WED...WITH A HIGH CENTER FORMING NEAR 28N86W WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS E WINDS OUTSIDE THE ZONES AFFECTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES...AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 3-5 FT EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NE WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0156Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. STRONG ESE FLOW S OF 18N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH MON. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN SAT EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 55W/56W. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA TUE THROUGH THU. A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE. THIS SURGE OF WINDS WILL MERGE WITH SIMILAR E WINDS ALREADY PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE SEA LATE MON ALLOWING FOR THE OVERALL AREA OF THESE WINDS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR REMAINDER PERIODS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS...USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE N AND NE OF BAHAMAS THROUGH MON. A RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N68W TO 27N74W TO WEST PALM BEACH FL. THE WRN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NOSES SW TO TO E OF THE BAHAMAS. ASCAT DATA...BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE...AND MAINLY MODERATE SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE. BUOY... SHIP AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT S 26N W OF 77W AND S OF 23N E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE HIGHER...IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE EXCEPT 7-11 FT N OF 29N. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N70W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW OF ABOUT 1013 MB IS FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29N70W THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND NW AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO S FL. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL SLOW DOWN IN SPEED THROUGH LATE MON...THEN BECOME A DISSIPATING STATIOANRY FROM NEAR 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE ON TUE. A RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG 31N MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SWD TO NEAR 29N WED ...AND PERSIST THERE ON THU. THE MAIN MARINE ISSUE WILL BE RELATED TO LARGE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-13 FT THAT WILL INFILTRATE MUCH OF THE WATERS N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-13 FT N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS LATER ON SUN... THEN TO 8 FT MON AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT MON NIGHT. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL FORM OFF THE WEAKENING FRONT ON MON NEAR THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS...AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG 31N MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SWD TO NEAR 29N ON WED AND TO 28N THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.