000 AGXX40 KNHC 181840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK RIDGING FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE NW GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NE GULF. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TAKES ABOUT TWO DAYS TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THIS LOW DEVELOPS. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AM FORECASTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WITHIN 180 TO 210 NM TO THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS LOCALLY TO 8 OR 9 FT. BY TUESDAY...WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE INLAND OVER MEXICO. RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MID WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF AS WELL AS SURROUNDING COASTAL AREAS OF MEXICO THROUGH MON. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE JUST N OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N CONTINUES TO PROMOTE STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...AS WELL AS NIGHTLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SW N ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ENDING THE NIGHTLY ENHANCED WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MON...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE SURGE WITH THE FIRST WAVE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WARNING ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THIS WAVE WHILE THE WAVE CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 23N EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ENE OF THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW WATERS FROM 31N70W TO THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE STALLING OUT AND DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT OR HIGHER WITH SWELL REACHING 12 FT ALONG AND N OF 30 NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUN NIGHT WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT BY MONDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...FORCING THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. PRE-FRONTAL FORCING WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ALONG AND WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.