000 AGXX40 KNHC 180754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FL NW TO NE TEXAS. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS CROSSED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IS NOW OVER THE THE FAR ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0220Z LAST NIGHT SHOW WINDS MAINLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTION SE-S TO THE S OF THE RIDGE E OF 89W...AND W-NW TO THE N OF THE RIDGE E OF 89W. WINDS S OF THE RIDGE W OF 89W ARE E-SE IN DIRECTION AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF THE RIDGE W OF 89W. THE BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE PORTION WHERE SCATTERED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BNDRY RACING S OFF THE FL PANHANDLE HAS KICKED UP SEAS TO THE 4-5 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BNDRY SURGES SWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF FOLLOWED BY A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE WEAK BNDY WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE E WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE IN THE ERN PORTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SEAS BUILDING THERE TO AROUND 6 FT. THE HIGH PRES THEN BECOMES A W TO E RIDGE OVER THE NRN PORTION TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS E WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND SEAS WITHIN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 3-5 FT EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG E-SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT SPREADING FROM E TO W THROUGH MUCH OF THE SW GULF FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BORDERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ LATE SUN INTO MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND POSSIBLE LOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE JUST N OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N CONTINUES TO PROMOTE STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AS INDICATED BY PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0216-0218Z LAST NIGHT AND BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W. IN ADDITION...SHIP "A8JX9" REPORTED E WINDS OF 25 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 0615Z NEAR PSN 12N72W. STRONG ESE FLOW OVER JUST OFFSHORE BELIZE TO JUST N OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS WAS IS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LAST NIGHT. THIS FLOW WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING...HOWEVER IT IS FORECAST TO CYCLE BACK UP TO STRONG E FLOW TONIGHT AND DIMINISH BACK TO MODERATE SPEEDS SUN MORNING. THESE WINDS MATERIALIZE AGAIN LATE SUN IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND DIMINISH EARLY ON MON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS MORNING...AND ENTER THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN SUN...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 48W WILL ENTER THE ERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES THIS EVENING...MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN EVENING...ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SEA TUE THROUGH WED. A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE. THIS SURGE OF WINDS WILL MERGE WITH SIMILAR E WINDS ALREADY PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE SEA LATE MON ALLOWING FOR THE OVERALL AREA OF THESE WINDS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH THE ADDED IMPETUS FROM THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SW N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS TODAY...THEN ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF ECMWF/TAFB NWPS WAVE OUTPUT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NE PART THROUGH MON. A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 23N EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FL EASTWARD TO ENE OF THE BASIN. ASCAT DATA...BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE...AND MAINLY MODERATE SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE. BUOY...SHIP AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT S OF 25N...ALSO N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 80W...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE. A RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST N OF THE AREA IS ATTENDANT BY A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 33N73W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SWD PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON... AND REACH TO JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AS THE LOW PRES MOVES SEWD TO NEAR 31N68W...AND THE WEAKENING FRONT REACHES TO S FL. THE MAIN MARINE ISSUE WILL BE RELATED TO LARGE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-13 FT THAT WILL INFILTRATE THE MUCH OF THE WATERS N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-11 FT N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS LATER ON SUN...THEN TO 8 FT MON AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT MON NIGHT. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL FORM OFF THE WEAKENING FRONT ON MON NEAR THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS...AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE WED. A RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG 31N MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SWD TO NEAR 29N ON WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.