000 AGXX40 KNHC 171900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAK RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS ACROSS BASIN TODAY EXTENDING FROM STRAITS NW INTO SE TEXAS. WLY FLOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS THIS MORNING HAD KICKED UP SEAS 3-5 FT WHILE SLY FLOW OFF TEXAS WAS YIELDING 3-4 FT. RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKS SSW ACROSS NE PORTIONS SAT EVE-NIGHT AND HAVE FOLLOWED ECMWF MORE CLOSELY...ALTHOUGH MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS NE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING BEFORE ABATING TO AROUND 20 KT AS FRONT CONTINUES SSW...REACHING TAMPA BAY TO MS RIVER DELTA BY 12Z SUN THEN CONTINUES A BIT FURTHER S ACROSS FL ON SUN BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN NIGHT ALONG SW FL COAST AND SE GULF WATERS. MEANWHILE...ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SAT AND SHIFT SLOWLY WWD ACROSS SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS THERE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LOW SHIFT WWD AND LIKELY INLAND ACROSS TAMPICO REGION SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON. HOWEVER...THE RAT HOLE OFTEN PRODUCES SURPRISES AND A LLVL FEATURE COULD LINGER BEYOND THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST 20-25 KT ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE OF ANY LOW OR E OF TROUGH DURING PASSAGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAK RIDGE ALONG 23-24N THROUGH THE S CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. GALES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT ENDED BY 12Z AND DROPPED WARNING WITH AM PACKAGE. STRONG ESE FLOW BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS YUCATAN HAD BUILT SEAS THERE 6-8 FT THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SUBSIDED VERY SLIGHTLY SINCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A NEXT PAIR OF ATLC TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN STARTING EARLY SAT. UNUSUALLY LATE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SW N ATLC AND FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AND NUDGE RIDGE OFF TO THE E...WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND WILL ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA THE ONLY REACH NEAR 30 KT AND 11 FT NEXT FEW NIGHTS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING WEAKLY INTO AREA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S TO ALONG 23-24N PAST 24 HOURS LEAVING GENTLE TO LIGHT FLOW ACROSS SE WATERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH SWLY FLOW N OF AXIS. NEW LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT AND RE-FRESHEN SWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN WATERS ON SAT...REACHING 20-25 KT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WATERS N OF 29N. ECMWF CONTINUES CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND HAVE FOLLOWED IT AGAIN TODAY...WHILE UKMET APPEARS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. FRONT TO SINK SWD AND REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN MORNING AND INTO NW BAHAMAS TO FL KEYS WHERE IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE MON MORNING. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SHIFT SE AND NEAR NRN BORDER EARLY SUN THEN LIFT OUT SLOWLY TO THE N SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG NELY FLOW W OF LOW AND FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS TO MATCH ECMWF AND BRING 8-15 FT SEAS INTO WATERS DURING THAT TIME. THIS SWELL TO MOVE INTO SE FL WATERS AND BLEED SOME SWELL ENERGY BEHIND BAHAMAS TO FAR SE WATERS SUN NIGHT-MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.