000 AGXX40 KNHC 170800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT THROUGH MON. A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED OVER N CENTRAL CUBA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 26N90W. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THERMAL TROUGH PUSHED OFFSHORE TO THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF LAST NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE GULF HAVE TRIGGERED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EXTREME ERN WATERS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0242Z SHOW MAINLY WINDS IN THE MODERATE RANGE THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTION SE-S TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AND SW N OF THE RIDGE. THE BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT. THE FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LITTLE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS ONES. THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A WEAKENING ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH SWD OVER THE ERN GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...AND BECOME ALIGNED E TO W OVER THE NRN GULF TUE AND TUE AND TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST PERTAINS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED OVER THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 86W S OF 20N AT 06Z. THIS WAVE WAS EARLIER ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ACROSS THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF BEGINNING EARLY ON SAT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF THROUGH MON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES FORMING ON THE WAVE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST LATE MON. IN ANY EVENT...THE PRES GRADIENT LAGGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG E-SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMEPECHE LATE SAT THROUGH MON WITH SEAS AROUND 7 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE IS PRESENT ALONG 24/25N AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. IT IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES WHERE E WINDS ARE MUCH STRONGER IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR 9-13 FT SEAS S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE E. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W S OF 20N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W S OF 13N AT 06Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ZONES THROUGH EARLY ON SAT ...THEN ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO SUN...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS BECOMES RATHER ILL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. WINDS INCREASED ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE ALONG 86W WITH SEAS THERE ABOUT 6-7 FT. THESE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. THIS CYCLE WILL REPEAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE GULF SAT NIGHT...THE SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS WITH ADDED BLEND OF THE ECMWF SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT. HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO SAT...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. E TO W RIDGE ACROSS WATERS ALONG 24-25N THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL AND WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH SAT AS IN RESPONSE TO E COAST LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MON AS IT WEAKENS. STRONG NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING THROUGH 18Z TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.