000 AGXX40 KNHC 161853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SE TO NW RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN TACT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AROUND THIS RIDGE. WINDS TO FRESHEN EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS WNW INTO GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY WITH SHIFT SLOWLY WWD ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE WITH THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT WHERE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN FAR SRN GULF THROUGH MON. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD A CONSENSUS WITH E COAST LOW THIS WEEKEND...AND ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT. HAVE THUS FOLLOWED ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION OF THE ECMWF DIPPING SSW ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF GULF SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING...GRADUALLY STALLING FROM NEAR VENICE FL TO MS DELTA SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH MON. ENE WINDS 20-25 KT BRIEFLY EXPECTED N OF FRONT SUN MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NARROW ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND WEAKLY WWD ALONG 24-25N AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND MAINTAIN MODERATE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE SHIFTED WNW ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WHERE WRN MOST WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH TUTT LOW OVER YUCATAN WHILE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE BEHIND IT HAS CROSSED 80W AND BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS BROAD MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE. STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY LARGELY BETWEEN 68-78W WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-11 FT. WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS SHORTLY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING 6-8 FT 03-06Z. AS PAIR OF WAVES SHIFTS WWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA NEXT 48 HOURS WINDS IN BASIN TO BECOME MORE ELY ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS E COAST LOW WEAKENS W END OF ATLC RIDGE AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES MODESTLY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. E TO W RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS WATERS ALONG 24-25N THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRI-SAT AS E COAST LOW CARVES INTO RIDGE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER LOW CONFIDENCE PAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARD THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOMALOUS COLD FRONT TO DROP S INTO NRN WATERS SAT MORNING WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALES IN W SEMICIRCLE OF PARENT LOW DEVELOPING NE SWELL DRIVING INTO WATERS W OF 75W AND INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. FRONT TO REACH 29N70W TO NEAR PALM BEACH BY 00Z MON THEN STALL FROM 30N70W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO STRAITS BY 12Z MON WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SEAS 8-15 FT TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS BEHIND FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.