000 AGXX40 KNHC 160502 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 102 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 86W WILL PASS W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE THE EFFECTS OF THE THIS EVENINGS TROUGH MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON SAT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EVEN IF THE LOW DOES DEVELOP WHICH IS UNCERTAIN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MAX OF 15-20 KT AROUND THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A MODEL BLEND STILL LEADS TO A SOLUTION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM LATE FRI THROUGH MIDDAY ON SUN. A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG A SE TO NW ORIENTATED RIDGE FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM THE FL STRAITS TO NE TX THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AROUND THIS RIDGE...INCREASING TO A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW BREEZE OVER THE NE GULF ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO FAR NE WATERS ON SAT MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH ALONG 27N BEFORE STALLING ON SUN. GUIDANCE DIFFERS AND FLUCTUATES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE POST-FRONTAL NE FLOW. FOR NOW...EXPECT FRESH- STRONG NE-E WINDS ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN N OF 28N E OF 89W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED TO THE S OF 12N ALONG 75W WILL CONTINUE W ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. FRESH-STRONG EASTERLY TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT...ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68-79W WITH A BAND OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THESE STRONG TRADES TO SPREAD W TO ALONG 82W EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AFFECTED AREA WILL SHRINK BACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11-15N BETWEEN 69-77W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EXPAND NW AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON SAT... BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON SUN WITH STRONG...LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE...TRADES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 65-80W EARLY MON. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY TO THE S OF 12N ALONG 49W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON FRI AND SAT WITH THE TRADES E OF THE WAVE INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE BETWEEN 12-17N ON SUN AND MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 24N55W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXTREME SE FL WILL WEAKEN SOME ON SAT AND RETRACT TO THE E OF 78W. STRONG SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF THE RIDGE...GENERALLY N OF 29N W OF 77W ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SE AND NEARLY STALLING FROM 31N75W TO PORT CANAVERAL FL ON SAT. REINFORCING WILL MOVE THE FRONT E AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT ALONG 31N71W TO 27N78W ON SUN. FRESH-LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS...AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT...WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS ROUGHLY TO THE N OF 30N AND W OF 76W BRIEFLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM 31N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON MON. STRONG E WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.