000 AGXX40 KNHC 151851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SE TO NW ORIENTATED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM THE FL STRAITS TO SE TX THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AROUND THIS RIDGE. WINDS TO INCREASE TO A FRESH SW BREEZE OVER THE NE GULF ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO FAR NE WATERS ON SAT MORNING. THE FRONT MAY REACH ALONG 27-28N BEFORE STALLING ON SUN. GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FRONT AND SUPPORTING S/W ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH 00Z RUN OF ECMWF REMAINING AN OUTLIER WHILE REMAINING GLOBAL MODELS IN SOMEWHAT OF AGREEMENT. HAVE THUS FOLLOWED GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH LIMITED OPTIONS FOR GFE POPULATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FRESH NE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI THROUGH SAT AND INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO GULF AS WELL AS THERMAL TROUGH MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SUN...AND DRIFT ABOUT. NHC HAS ADDED THIS FEATURE TO THE 5 DAY GENESIS PROG. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING ALMOST E TO W ALONG 24N-25N THROUGH BAHAMAS AND INTO FL STRAITS PRODUCING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN FOR STRONG ESE TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THAT EXTENDS N TO S COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI. PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERING STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS SW CARIB ATTM...FIRST MOVING INTO NICARAGUA AND SECOND ALONG ABOUT 74W. ASSOCIATED LLVL JETS WILL SPREAD STRONG TRADES WNW 24 HRS OR SO AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE TRADES IN GULF OF HONDURAS TO FRESH TONIGHT AND THEN TO STRONG THU NIGHT AND NEXT FEW NIGHTS. MID LVL RIDGING EXTENDS S ALONG ABOUT 62W BEHIND SECOND WAVE AND PRODUCING STABLE CONDITIONS BEHIND WAVES ACROSS E PORTIONS. BUOY 42058 ROSE TO 10 FT THIS MORNING AND FLUCTUATING 9-10 FT ATTM WITHIN THE BROAD WIND SURGE. WAVE MODELS SLIGHTLY LOW ACROSS THE BASIN BUT LIKELY ONLY 1 FT LOW ATTM. POSITIONING OF CARIB LLVL JET TO SHIFT SWD TO MORE CLIMO POSITION STARTING TONIGHT AND BRING STRONG WINDS BACK TO ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES COULD IMPACT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN BY SUN AND THUS CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SWIPE BOUNDARIES W TO E ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM 29N60W TO 31N72W TO DRAG E AND LIFT OUT TO NE ON W END OF RIDGE BY 24 HRS. NARROW RIDGE ALONG 24-25N EXTENDING WNW THROUGH BAHAMAS AND STRAITS PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. TUTT LOW ACROSS STRAITS AND S FL ENHANCING DEVELOPING CNVTN ACROSS THAT AREA CURRENTLY. CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH FRI WHILE DIGGING E COAST TROUGH AND RESULTANT SFC LOW ALONG MID ATLC COAST ENHANCE SWLY FLOW ACROSS NW AND N PORTIONS...BECOMING WSE NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT BY EARLY FRI BEFORE LOW SHIFTS ENE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY PAST SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND FRI NIGHT WITH NEXT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG MID ATLC COAST WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BY GLOBAL MODELS. ECMWF REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CYCLOGENESIS JUST E OF 70W AND THEN LIFTS N THEN NNW AND STRENGTHENS...ALLOWING FRONT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL FL...WHILE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW CLOSER TO E COAST AND SHIFTS WSW INTO N FL WHILE UKMET AND CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED MORE IN SIMILARITY TO ECMWF. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. 00Z RUNS WERE CLOSER TO GFS AND HAVE BLENDED WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH GFS BUT LOOKS LIKE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHIFTING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY FOR NEXT PACKAGES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.