000 AGXX40 KNHC 150515 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. EXPECT FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 81W WILL PASS W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE EFFECTS OF THE FRI EVENING TROUGH MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW...ABOUT 1011 MB...WILL FORM ON FRI IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE DURATION...STRENGTH AND EVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. A MODEL BLEND LEADS TO A SOLUTION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI AND SAT...AND THEN RE-ENFORCED ON SUN BY THE SAT EVENING TROUGH MOVING W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE. BLENDING OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOSTLY MODERATE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE E GULF ALONG A SE TO NW ORIENTATED RIDGE FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM THE FL STRAITS TO NE TX THROUGH FRI NIGHT. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AROUND THIS RIDGE... INCREASING TO A FRESH SW BREEZE OVER THE NE GULF ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO FAR NE WATERS ON SAT MORNING. THE FRONT MAY REACH ALONG 27-28N BEFORE STALLING ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU. FRESH-STRONG EASTERLY TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67-76W...WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER W TO ALONG 81W LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO PULSE TO STRONG THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH THE GRADIENT BEGINNING TO RELAX ON FRI. THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO STRONG AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG E WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE S OF 13N ALONG 65W WILL SKIRT W ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA THROUGH THU NIGHT... AND THEN CONTINUE W ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ON FRI INTO SAT. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY TO THE S OF 11N ALONG 45W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON FRI AND SAT WITH LITTLE EXPECTED EFFECTS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 30N64W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR 30N77W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAK WARM FRONT TODAY AND LIFT N OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING FROM 31N55W TO 27N57W THIS EVENING...AND MOVE E OF 55W ON THU. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N55W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO SE FL WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER S ON THU AND THEN WEAKEN SOME ON SAT. FRESH-STRONG SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF THE RIDGE...N OF 30N W OF 75W...BRIEFLY ON THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 66- 74W ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP N OF 28N W OF 76W ON FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING S TO POSITION FROM 31N70W TO NE FL LATE SAT. FRESH-LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS ROUGHLY TO THE N OF 30N AND W OF 80W BRIEFLY ON SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.