000 AGXX40 KNHC 141825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 1016 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS SE GULF THIS MORNING NEAR 25.5N85.5W WITH RIDGING WNW TO TEXAS COAST. MOISTURE TRAPPED BEHIND LAST TROUGH THAT SWEPT SE ACROSS FLORIDA LINGERS ACROSS NE GULF THIS MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS BASIN WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS NEAR AND OFFSHORE TEXAS WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE 3-4 FT. RESIDUAL 3-4 FT LINGER ACROSS SW WATERS IN WAKE OF YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING WNW OVERNIGHT. HIGH WILL MEANDER WITHIN RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEK AND DRIFT SLIGHTLY NWD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ACTIVE YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH EACH AFTERNOON-EVENING. DYNAMICS FROM CARIB TROPICAL WAVE NEARING 80W THIS MORNING TO SHIFT ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL THU NIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NARROW E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER N OF THE AREA ALONG 23N-24N THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MAINTAIN A MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO STRONG LOWER TROP WIND SURGES TO ENHANCE THE TRADES. CURRENT WAVE INVOF 79W HAS PROMOTED A SIGNIFICANT ESE WIND SURGE ACROSS SE AND CENTRAL PORTIONS PAST 24 HRS WITH 42059 JUMPING UP TO 8 FT THIS MORNING AND 1-2 FT ABOVE GUIDANCE. ESE TRAJECTORY KEEPING SWH MAX OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND CLOSER TO 14N. WIND SURGE WILL TRANSLATE WNW WITH WAVE AS IT ENTERS NICARAGUA WED EVE AND ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS THU. N PORTION OF WAVE WILL SHEAR OFF AND MOVE INTO YUCATAN THU-FRI. NEXT WAVE IS VERY LOW LAT/LOW AMPLITUDE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 62W AD WILL REACH THE SW CARIB FRI. A THIRD WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI AND INTO ERN CARIB EARLY SAT. ALIGNMENT OF RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING WIND SURGES WITH WAVES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND MAX SEAS 10-12 FT. GULF OF HONDURAS TO LIGHT UP THU NIGHT WITH AND BEHIND CURRENT WAVE ALONG 79W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NARROW E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER N OF THE AREA ALONG 23N-24N THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ACROSS S PORTIONS TO MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS THROUGH SRN CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG NRN BORDER FROM E OF BERMUDA TO 29N75W WILL STALL W OF 70W...WITH THAT SEGMENT OF THE FRONT LIFTING BACK N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE E SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E THEN NEARLY STALLING FROM 31N55W TO 25N58W ON WED NIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW CURRENTLY N OF 29N AHEAD OF FRONT IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE OF THE AREA AND EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. . FRESH-STRONG SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF THE RIDGE...N OF 30N W OF 71W...BRIEFLY ON THU NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP N OF 28N W OF 77W ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING S TO POSITION FROM 31N72W TO NE FL EARLY SAT. STILL VERY MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS IN HANDLING IF E COAST UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS THIS WEEKEND OFF OF E COAST OF U.S. 00Z RUN OF ECMWF WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW AND AN OUTLIER ATTM SO HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION UNTIL CLEARER SIGNAL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.