000
AGXX40 KNHC 140531
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE E GULF ALONG
A SE TO NW ORIENTATED RIDGE FORECAST FROM THE FL STRAITS TO NE
TX THROUGH EARLY FRI. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AROUND THIS RIDGE...INCREASING TO A FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG SW BREEZE OVER THE NE GULF ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO FAR NE WATERS ON SAT. THE FRONT MAY
REACH ALONG 28N BEFORE STALLING LATE SAT NIGHT.  
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W
WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING MID WEEK...AND THROUGH
THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK. EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE
TO STRONG AGAIN TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPANDING NW TO JUST S
OF JAMAICA BY EARLY WED...AND CONTINUING TO PULSE TO STRONG
THROUGH THU WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. STRONG E
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THU NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND EXPAND N TO ALONG 19N LATE FRI NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS E OF WINDWARDS TODAY...ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT 
AND REACH THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. FRESH TO 
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP E OF WINDWARDS ON SAT NIGHT.
   
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 26N55W TO THE FL STRAITS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM 31N70W
TO 30N77W AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN QUICKLY STALL W OF
70W...WITH THAT SEGMENT OF THE FRONT LIFTING BACK N OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE E SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E PASSING
BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING...AND REACHING FROM 31N60W TO 29N70W
TONIGHT...THEN NEARLY STALLING FROM 31N55W TO 25N58W ON WED
NIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW CURRENTLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRESH-STRONG SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF THE RIDGE...N OF 30N W OF
71W...BRIEFLY ON THU NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP N OF
28N W OF 77W ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING S TO
POSITION FROM 31N72W TO NE FL EARLY SAT.    

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.