000 AGXX40 KNHC 131846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUE EVENING...THEN EXPECT ONLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS BEGINNING ON WED EVENING...AND REPEATING THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BY SAT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS SOUTH OF AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE EVENINGS. ELSEWHERE WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS INTO FRI. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE FAR NE GULF BY LATE FRI WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERN WINDS INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS WILL INCREASE TUE AS THE WAVE PASSES. A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CLIP THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUE...MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW STRONG TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA INTO FRI...GENERATING AREAS OF EASTERLY SWELL TO 11 FT FARTHER WEST. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE FRI INTO SAT BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 29N65W. THIS WILL DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH TUE...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY THU OFF NE FLORIDA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DRIFT EASTWARD MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUE THROUGH THU. BY SATURDAY...THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OFF NE FLORIDA RELATED TO A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE ECMWF...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR NOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.