000 AGXX40 KNHC 130518 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 118 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUE EVENING...THEN EXPECT ONLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS BEGINNING ON WED EVENING...AND REPEATING THROUGH FRI EVENING. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT TIGHTER GRADIENT AGAIN ON SAT EVENING RESULTING IN FRESH NE WINDS AGAIN. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON SUN NIGHT WAS NOT AS INTENSE AS THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS...THIS WILL BACK ON INTENSITY IN WEATHER GRIDS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE...THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A SE TO NW ORIENTATED RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE FL STRAITS TO NE TX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AROUND THIS RIDGE...INCREASING TO A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW BREEZE OVER THE NE GULF ON FRI EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO FAR NE WATERS EARLY SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRADES OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH W OF THE WAVE...AND THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO STRONG AGAIN TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THESE STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND N ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI ACCOMPANIED BY 7-10 FT SEAS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA ALONG 45W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF WINDWARDS ON TUE NIGHT AND WED... AND ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH SOME AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AGAIN E OF THE WAVE. STRONG E WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRI EVENING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND EXPAND N TO ALONG 20N LATE FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N55W TO 26N65W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BETWEEN 72-77W TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A WEAK... PERHAPS ABOUT 1015 MB...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY NEAR 24N77W. FURTHER N...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N74W WILL LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE BUILDING E TO W FROM 24N55W TO CENTRAL FL TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION FROM 25N55W TO THE FL STRAITS ON WED. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...AND SUGGESTS A STRONG SW-W WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND STRONG POST-FRONTAL NE FLOW PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR NW FORECAST WATERS LATE SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.