000 AGXX40 KNHC 121857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS MAINTAINING NEAR CALM WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND UPPER FORCING RELATED TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STARTING MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH THU AND FRI AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NE GULF...ALLOWING WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...LATE EVENING TROUGHING OVER NW YUCATAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED BY LATE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT ALSO INDUCE STRONGER WINDS OFF VENEZUELA AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES WEST BY MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST OF 55W MON...ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN TUE AND MOVE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU...ALSO ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 9 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY. E WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES FARTHER SOUTH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND NO RETURN OF THE STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 24N TO 25N ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE WEEK...LEAVING A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 25N AND 28N THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEST TO EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUE AND WED. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY N OF 30N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.