000 AGXX40 KNHC 120521 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 121 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF THE W YUCATAN COAST BRIEFLY AROUND SUNSET TODAY. THE RESULTANT INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE W- NW ACROSS THE SW GULF LATE EACH NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ALONG ABOUT 93W DURING THE LATE MORNINGS. THE CURRENT TROUGH MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WAS VERY CONVECTIVE LAST EVENING AND ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TSTMS ALONG W COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE COUPLE EVENINGS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE E- CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH TUE. THEN THE HIGH CENTER WILL LOSE IDENTITY IN AN E TO W RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE FL STRAITS TO NE TX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY TO THE S OF 15N ALONG 61W WILL PASS THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING MID WEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA ALONG 36W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF WINDWARDS ON WED NIGHT AND THU AND ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AN AREA OF STRONG E WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK BACK TO A SMALL AREA JUST OFFSHORE THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA TONIGHT INTO MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON MON NIGHT WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPANDING N ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG E WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL END BY SUNRISE TODAY...THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N53W TO 24N70W TO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BETWEEN 73-78W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT A WEAK... PERHAPS ABOUT 1015 MB...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR 24N77W LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH MON EVENING. FURTHER N...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N75W WILL LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE BUILDING E TO W FROM 24N55W TO CENTRAL FL ON SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AND BUILD FROM 24N55W TO SE FL ON TUE NIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH/LOW PRES CENTER DISSIPATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT OT TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRI ACCOMPANIED BY THE SLIGHTEST SW-WSW 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.