000 AGXX40 KNHC 111849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ATLC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. FARTHER SOUTH...EXPECT THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RESULTANT INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF LATE EACH NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ALONG ABOUT 93W DURING THE LATE MORNINGS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SUN EVENING YUCATAN EVENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...WITH A NARROW BAND OF STRONG N-NE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE W YUCATAN COAST BRIEFLY AROUND SUNSET. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WERE NOTED OFF THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA. THE CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS WERE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED. FARTHER EAST...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM 20N55W THROUGH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 13Z INDICATED ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE WAVE...CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING 26N65W FROM 24N72W. JET DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ASSISTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM 24N55W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW AND MODEST SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.