000 AGXX40 KNHC 110523 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 123 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RESULTANT INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF LATE EACH NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ALONG ABOUT 93W DURING THE LATE MORNINGS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SUN EVENING YUCATAN EVENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...WITH A NARROW BAND OF STRONG N-NE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE W YUCATAN COAST BRIEFLY AROUND SUNSET. THE CURRENT TROUGH MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS VERY CONVECTIVE AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THUS WILL FORECAST TSTM ALONG W COAST OF YUCATAN DURING EVENINGS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH TUE. THE HIGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY IN AN E TO W RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE FL STRAITS TO NE TX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY TO THE S OF 13N ALONG 53W WILL PASS W THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS TODAY...ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING MID WEEK. STRONG E WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BRIEFLY TODAY...THEN SHRINK BACK TO A SMALL AREA JUST OFFSHORE THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPANDING N ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. A BAND OF EMBEDDED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. STRONG E WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL END BY SUNRISE TODAY...THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND REDEVELOP AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...THEN THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MON INTO TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N60W TRAILS A WEAK COLD FRONT SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY LOSE IDENTITY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM 29N55W TO 25N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN AND THEN GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY ON MON. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHIFT S INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N76W TONIGHT...THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE BUILDING E TO W FROM 24N55W TO CENTRAL FL ON SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AND EXTEND FROM 24N55W TO SE FL ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.