000 AGXX40 KNHC 101852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF RELATED TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE RESULTANT INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF LATE EACH NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ALONG ABOUT 93W DURING THE LATE MORNINGS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SUN EVENING YUCATAN EVENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...WITH STRONG NE WINDS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNSET. THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER SOUTH. A RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED E-W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY...WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NE GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55WAND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 15Z INDICATED STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND RIDGING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. EARLIER BUOY DATA AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ENHANCING MODEST CONVECTION OVER A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TO THE WEST OF 55W CURRENTLY. THE ATTENDANT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST REACHING TRINIDAD BY EARLY MONDAY...THEN THROUGH VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONGER TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH. THE STRONG E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SAT AND LATE SUN. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN WATERS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MON INTO TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND HAND EDITED. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 30N65W TO WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRES OFF CAPE CANAVERAL. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CURRENTLY. THE FORECAST WAS EDITED TO INCORPORATE THE LOW PRES OFF CAPE CANAVERAL...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF INITIALIZATION. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OFF NW BAHAMAS AS THE LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 27N TO 29N THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.