000 AGXX40 KNHC 100528 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 128 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE RESULTANT INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF LATE EACH NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ALONG ABOUT 93W DURING THE LATE MORNINGS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SUN EVENING YUCATAN EVENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...WITH STRONG NE WINDS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFTING SLOWLY SW THEN MEANDERING OVER THE E-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55WAND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY TO THE S OF 13N ALONG 45W WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON SAT NIGHT...AND ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT. STRONG E WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ON SAT...THEN DIMINISH SOME EVERYWHERE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED NEAR GALE WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. STRONG E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SAT AND LATE SUN. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN WATERS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MON INTO TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF BERMUDA TO NE FL WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N73W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY...PASSING THROUGH 31N62W THIS EVENING BEFORE LOSING IDENTITY. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT TO ITS W SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N55W TO 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SAT. FRESH SW-W WINDS ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 31N77W TONIGHT AND SHIFT E TO NEAR 31N73W ON SAT NIGHT...THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE BUILDING E TO W FROM 24N55W TO NE FL ON SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AND EXTEND FROM 24N55W TO SE FL ON TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.