000 AGXX40 KNHC 091746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N WATERS FROM 29N83W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N96W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRI MORNING. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN SE GULF TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOISTURE RELATED TO THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SW GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION ON FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 65W. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. HIGH PRES RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY SAT MORNING. EXPECT WIND ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO PULSE TO 25 KT THROUGH MON WITH HIGHEST WINDS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING AT NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OVER THE AREA FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS SYSTEM NEAR 30N68W ON FRI. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG W-SW WINDS N OF 30N AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 60W. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE SEEN WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 74W. A 90 NM WIDE-BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN WATERS THE REST OF TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED NEAR 25N56W EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 25N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRI INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.