000 AGXX40 KNHC 090645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA TODAY...AFFECTING THE EASTERN GULF. GFS MODEL CLOSES OFF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH JUST W OF FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN SE GULF TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 60W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND ENHANCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. HIGH PRES RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT WIND ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO PULSE TO 25 KT THROUGH MON WITH HIGHEST WINDS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING AT NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES OVER THE AREA FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A RECENT SCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH W-SW WINDS N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 65W. A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TODAY. THE COMBINED BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN WATERS TODAY. GFS MODEL INDICATES A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29N78W THIS MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA DOES NOT INDICATE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 0300...WHICH SUGGESTS LOW PROBABILITY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N56W EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 25N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRI INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.