000 AGXX40 KNHC 081826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN EXTREME SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA ON THU...BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN GULF. AGAIN... THE GFS MODEL CLOSES OFF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ON THU. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN SE GULF THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE FAR SE GULF ON THU. THIS IS A TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 69W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU EVENING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 65W-70W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS FROM 12-15N BETWEEN 67W-72W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NE OF THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING AT NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES SW WINDS N OF 29N AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 65W. A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S. LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE BOUNDARY BY THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION AND SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH THU. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS POST-TROPICAL LOW COLIN DRAGS THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICS. A WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N78W BY EARLY THU. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N57W EXTENDS A RIDGE ALONG 25N/26N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 25N THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N THU THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.