000 AGXX40 KNHC 080650 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN EXTREME SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE SW WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N TODAY THEN LINGER AS A TROUGH THROUGH THU NIGHT. GFS MODEL NO LONGER CLOSES OFF A SFC LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH AND IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH EUROPEAN UK MODELS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN SE GULF THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO HONDURAS SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS LINE OF CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSFORM INTO A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 64W-72W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0130 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS S OF 14N TO NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W AT 10-15 KT AND REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU EVENING THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NE OF THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING AT NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM 31N71W TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S. LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH THE BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA BY THU. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION AND SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH THU. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT AS POST-TROPICAL LOW COLIN DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N57W EXTENDS A RIDGE ALONG 25N/26N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 25N THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THEN 4 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.