000 AGXX40 KNHC 070600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN GULF ARE RAPIDLY IMPROVING AS TS COLIN...NOW CENTERED OVER NE FLORIDA...EXITS THE AREA. SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRONG SW WINDS AND ACTIVE CONVECTION ARE CONTINUING WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE W FLORIDA COAST FROM FORT MEYERS NORTHWARD TO PORT RICHEY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COLIN ACCELERATES E-NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WED NIGHT THEN STALL ALONG 27N-28N THU AND THU NIGHT. GFS MODEL INDICATES LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT SW OF TAMPA BAY NEAR 27N85W BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS IS LIKELY AS NONE OF OTHER GUIDANCE AGREES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SE TO S WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE CIRCULATION OF TS COLIN WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD E-SE AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE TROPICS. BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N55W WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH WED OR THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. T.S. COLIN CENTERED OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE WILL EMERGE INTO NW PORTION OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTER AND TRAILING SOUTHWARD WILL BE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MAX WINDS WILL REACH 40-45 KT N OF 30N W OF 80W THIS MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT N OF 30N IN ZONE AMZ111 THIS MORNING AS COLIN RACES NE ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE U.S. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM COLIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER NE WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LINGERING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH WED NIGHT. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 24N AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED E OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS MORNING. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.